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Past 7 Years in a Row Were Hottest on Record, Harrowing WMO Report Confirms

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The United Nations Secretary-General has called 2021 “the make it or break it year” for climate action.

2021 is not over yet, but a provisional report on the state of the planet suggests we are leaning heavily towards breaking it.

 

Experts at the UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recently calculated the last seven years have been the warmest on record.

We only have data for the first nine months of 2021, but the initial analysis suggests it will likely rank either the fifth, sixth, or seventh warmest year of those seven.

The main reason it won’t be warmer is because earlier this year, the cooling effects of La Niña kicked in.

The trend since 2015, however, is clear: In just seven years, there has been a rapid and long-term rise in global temperatures, sea level rise, ocean warming, and acidification.

At the current rate of greenhouse gas emissions, the report calculates the world will warm by at least 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius come the end of the century.

The global mean temperature from January to September 2021 was already about 1.09 °C above the pre-industrial average, which means we don’t have much wiggle room left.

“We are still significantly off-schedule to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. This year has seen fossil fuel emissions bounce back, greenhouse gas concentrations continuing to rise and severe human-enhanced weather events that have affected health, lives and livelihoods on every continent,” wrote the UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, in a foreword for the report.

“Unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to 1.5 °C will be impossible, with catastrophic consequences for people and the planet on which we depend.”

The report was released at the start of the UN Climate Change negotiations, currently being held in Glasgow, Scotland. Known as COP26 for short, the conference will ultimately decide how the world will progress in this pivotal moment, so it’s important we know where we’re at. 

The snapshot provided by the WMO report, which is considered a flagship scientific document, is alarming on pretty much every level.

 

In 2020, despite a global pandemic which briefly slowed emissions, the report reveals greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere hit all new highs. Carbon dioxide had increased 150 percent since pre-industrial levels, methane had increased 262 percent, and nitrous oxide 123 percent.

Climate data from the start of 2021 suggest this year saw a slight dip from La Niña, but compared to the last La Niña event in 2011, this year also appears significantly warmer.

Given rising global temperatures across the board, even years of La Niña, it’s no surprise that sea ice in the East Greenland Sea hit a record low this year. But it’s still shocking.

In August, researchers recorded the first-ever rainfall on the summit of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and it lasted for hours. Usually, this summit only ever receives snow.

In the ocean, things aren’t much better. Warming, sea level rise and acidification are steadily worsening with time.

The report found ocean acidification hasn’t been at this level for at least 26,000 years, and it’s impacting the ocean’s ability to store carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, making the climate crisis above the waves even worse.

 

“From the ocean depths to mountain tops, from melting glaciers to relentless extreme weather events, ecosystems and communities around the globe are being devastated,” warns Guterres. 

“COP26 must be a turning point for people and planet.”

In the past nine months, the world has experienced numerous wildfires, several extreme heat waves, cyclones, hurricanes, droughts, and some severely cold weather events, too.

In Bangladesh, monsoon rains were so bad this summer, several refugee sites were flooded, displacing more than 25,000 people who had already lost their homes before.

We must build back better

Emerging research suggests climate change will only make extreme weather events like these more frequent and severe. 

“Months’ worth of rainfall fell in the space of hours in China, and parts of Europe saw severe flooding, leading to dozens of casualties and billions in economic losses,” recalls WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.

“A second successive year of drought in sub-tropical South America reduced the flow of mighty river basins and hit agriculture, transport and energy production. Extreme events are the new norm.”

Taalas argues nations not only need to significantly cut their emissions, but also prepare for the realities ahead that are already locked in. Investing in climate adaptation is one of the best ways to save lives and livelihoods from extreme weather events in the future, he says.

 

“Throughout the pandemic we have heard that we must build back better to set humanity on a more sustainable path and to avoid the worst impacts of climate change on society and economies,” continues Taalas.

“This report shows that so far in 2021 we are not going in the right direction.”

Here’s to hoping leaders at COP26 can turn this ship around.

The WMO provisional report can be easily read in the form of a story map

 

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Indian Coast Guard to get three more pollution control vessels to enhance capabilities

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Panaji: As a marine pollution control response, three more pollution control vessels (PCVs) will be added to the Indian Coast Guard’s (ICG) fleet, Union Defence Secretary Ajay Kumar said on Tuesday.

Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the 8th National Pollution Response Exercise currently taking place in Goa, Kumar said that India is also willing to help friendly countries in upgrading their capabilities.

Around 19 friendly countries are participating in the exercise.

The Union government is continuously trying to upgrade the ICG’s capabilities to face pollution hazards in the ocean.

“Today, the Indian Coast Guard is capable of handling the highest level of oil spills in this region, which is 700 tonnes and above. Only a few countries in the world have this capability,” Kumar said.

Currently, the ICG has two dedicated vessels for pollution response, while three more will be added to its fleet to enhance its capability, he said.

The Indian Ocean is one of the busiest routes in the world and half of the trade takes place in the region, the senior official said, adding that oil exploration has also increase and accidents can happen anywhere.

Countries are also battling with the issue of plastic waste being dumped in the ocean, he said.

“We need to fight this (plastic pollution) collectively. It cannot be done by one country. All the coastal countries in the region need to make efforts,” Kumar said.

The defence secretary lauded the Punit Sagar Mission launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to clear plastic from the coastline.

“We should ensure that plastic waste is not washed into the ocean. Every year, 15,000 million tonnes of plastic washes into the Indian Ocean from different countries. If this continues, our marine life, environment, ecology and health will be affected,” he said.

Asked about cooperation from Pakistan and China over the pollution response, Kumar said, “This is an environmental issue and all countries should contribute towards it.” Several treaties have been signed to reduce pollution in the Indian Ocean, and friendly nations will have to collectively ensure that these are observed, he said.(GoaNewsHub)

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Brain Implant Translates Paralyzed Man’s Thoughts Into Text With 94% Accuracy

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A man paralyzed from the neck down due to a spinal cord injury he sustained in 2007 has shown he can communicate his thoughts, thanks to a brain implant system that translates his imagined handwriting into actual text.

 

The device – part of a longstanding research collaboration called BrainGate – is a brain-computer interface (BCI), that uses artificial intelligence (AI) to interpret signals of neural activity generated during handwriting.

In this case, the man – called T5 in the study, and who was 65 years of age at the time of the research – wasn’t doing any actual writing, as his hand, along with all his limbs, had been paralyzed for several years.

But during the experiment, reported in Nature earlier in the year, the man concentrated as if he were writing – effectively, thinking about making the letters with an imaginary pen and paper.

As he did this, electrodes implanted in his motor cortex recorded signals of his brain activity, which were then interpreted by algorithms running on an external computer, decoding T5’s imaginary pen trajectories, which mentally traced the 26 letters of the alphabet and some basic punctuation marks.

“This new system uses both the rich neural activity recorded by intracortical electrodes and the power of language models that, when applied to the neurally decoded letters, can create rapid and accurate text,” says first author of the study Frank Willett, a neural prosthetics researcher from Stanford University.

 

Similar systems developed as part of the BrainGate have been transcribing neural activity into text for several years, but many previous interfaces have focused on different cerebral metaphors for denoting which characters to write – such as point-and-click typing with a computer cursor controlled by the mind.

It wasn’t known, however, how well the neural representations of handwriting – a more rapid and dexterous motor skill – might be retained in the brain, nor how well they might be leveraged to communicate with a brain-computer interface, or BCI.

Here, T5 showed just how much promise a virtual handwriting system could offer for people who have lost virtually all independent physical movement.

BrainImpantDevice2A diagram of how the system works. (F. Willett et al., Nature, 2021, Erika Woodrum)

In tests, the man was able to achieve writing speeds of 90 characters per minute (about 18 words per minute), with approximately 94 percent accuracy (and up to 99 percent accuracy with autocorrect enabled).

Not only is that rate significantly faster than previous BCI experiments (using things like virtual keyboards), but it’s almost on par with the typing speed of smartphone users in the man’s age group – which is about 115 characters or 23 words per minute, the researchers say.

 

“We’ve learned that the brain retains its ability to prescribe fine movements a full decade after the body has lost its ability to execute those movements,” Willett says.

“And we’ve learned that complicated intended motions involving changing speeds and curved trajectories, like handwriting, can be interpreted more easily and more rapidly by the artificial-intelligence algorithms we’re using than can simpler intended motions like moving a cursor in a straight path at a steady speed.”

Basically, the researchers say that alphabetical letters are very different from one another in shape, so the AI can decode the user’s intention more rapidly as the characters are drawn, compared to other BCI systems that don’t make use of dozens of different inputs in the same way.

BrainImpantDevice2The man’s imagined handwriting, as interpreted by the system. (Frank Willett)

Despite the potential of this first-of-its-kind technology, the researchers emphasize that the current system is only a proof of concept so far, having only been shown to work with one participant, so it’s definitely not a complete, clinically viable product as yet.

The next steps in the research could include training other people to use the interface, expanding the character set to include more symbols (such as capital letters), refining the sensitivity of the system, and adding more sophisticated editing tools for the user.

There’s plenty of work to still be done, but we could be looking at an exciting new development here, giving the ability to communicate back to people who lost it.

“Our results open a new approach for BCIs and demonstrate the feasibility of accurately decoding rapid, dexterous movements years after paralysis,” the researchers write.

“We believe that the future of intracortical BCIs is bright.”

The findings are reported in Nature.

 

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Astronomers Detect a ‘Tsunami’ of Gravitational Waves. Here’s Where They’re Coming From

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The most recent gravitational wave observing run has netted the biggest haul yet.

In less than five months, from November 2019 to March 2020, the LIGO-Virgo interferometers recorded a massive 35 gravitational wave events. On average, that’s almost 1.7 gravitational wave events every week for the duration of the run.

 

This represents a significant increase from the 1.5-event weekly average detected on the previous run, and a result that has plumped up the number of total events to 90 since that first history-making gravitational wave detection in September 2015.

“These discoveries represent a tenfold increase in the number of gravitational waves detected by LIGO and Virgo since they started observing,” said astrophysicist Susan Scott of the Australian National University in Australia.

“We’ve detected 35 events. That’s massive! In contrast, we made three detections in our first observing run, which lasted four months in 2015-16. This really is a new era for gravitational wave detections and the growing population of discoveries is revealing so much information about the life and death of stars throughout the Universe.”

Of the 35 new detections, 32 are most likely the result of mergers between pairs of black holes. This is when pairs of black holes on a close orbit are drawn in by mutual gravity, eventually colliding to form one single, more massive black hole.

That collision sends ripples through space-time, like the ripples generated when you throw a rock in a pond; astronomers can analyze those ripples to determine the properties of the black holes.

mergersAn infographic showing the masses of all black hole mergers announced to date. (LIGO-Virgo/Aaron Geller/Northwestern University)

The data revealed a range of black hole masses, with the most massive clocking in at around 87 times the mass of the Sun. That black hole merged with a companion 61 times the mass of the Sun, resulting in a single black hole 141 times the mass of the Sun. That event is named GW200220_061928.

Another merger produced a black hole 104 times the mass of the Sun; both of these are considered intermediate mass black holes, a mass range between 100 and around a million solar masses, in which very few black holes have been detected.

 

GW200220_061928 is also interesting, because at least one of the black holes involved in the merger falls into what we call the upper mass gap. According to our models, black holes over about 65 solar masses can’t form from a single star, as stellar mass black holes do.

That’s because the precursor stars are so massive that their supernovae – known as pair-instability supernovae – ought to completely obliterate the stellar core, leaving nothing behind to gravitationally collapse into a black hole.

This suggests that the 87 solar mass black hole might be the product of a previous merger. GW200220_061928 isn’t the first that’s involved a black hole in the upper mass gap, but its detection does suggest that hierarchical black hole mergers are not uncommon.

And another event includes an object in the lower mass gap – a gap of black holes between 2.5 and 5 times the mass of the Sun. We’ve not conclusively found a neutron star larger than the former, or a black hole smaller than the latter; the event named GW200210_092254 involved an object clocking in at 2.8 solar masses. Astronomers have concluded that it’s probably a very small black hole.

 

“Looking at the masses and spins of the black holes in these binary systems indicates how these systems got together in the first place,” Scott said.

“It also raises some really fascinating questions. For example, did the system originally form with two stars that went through their life cycles together and eventually became black holes? Or were the two black holes thrust together in a very dense dynamical environment such as at the centre of a galaxy?”

The other three events out of the 35 involved a black hole and something else much less massive, likely a neutron star. These events are of great interest to astronomers, since they might reveal the stuff that’s inside a neutron star – if we ever detect one that emits light. By finding more of these mergers, we can start to build a better understanding of how they actually occur.

“Only now are we starting to appreciate the wonderful diversity of black holes and neutron stars,” said astronomer Christopher Berry of the University of Glasgow in the UK

“Our latest results prove that they come in many sizes and combinations – we have solved some long-standing mysteries, but uncovered some new puzzles too. Using these observations, we are closer to unlocking the mysteries of how stars, the building blocks of our Universe, evolve.”

The team’s paper has been submitted for publication, and can be found on preprint server arXiv.

 

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